LASPE Petroleum Technology Forum

THE FUTURE SUPPLY OF OIL FROM RUSSIA
John Grace, President of Earth Science Associates in Long Beach

Dr. John Grace

The ascension of a strong Russian oil industry this decade is the most influential new force in the world oil market since the empowerment of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the seventies. Russia holds more oil resources than any country outside OPEC and vies with Saudi Arabia for world leadership in production and exports. The productive capabilities of Russia's oil industry and the policies of its government clearly move both short and long run world oil prices. Russia is at once an ally and opponent of OPEC and stands in the same dichotomous relationship to oil consumers. It is a fulcrum.

After 15 years of radical transformation, the Russian oil industry now enjoys unprecedented economic and technical stability. This has brought record production increases and financial well-being. The country's ability to continue growth in output, however, faces increases in operating and transportation costs and taxes, which will limit producers profits and investments. Moreover, much of the country's untapped resource base is located in remote, high-cost and environmentally sensitive locales. Recently, strong new forces, which have centralized national political and economic power in the hands of the Russian president, also raise doubts over Russia's ability to maintain its recent rate of growth in oil output.

Biography:

Dr. John Grace is President of Earth Science Associates of Long Beach, California, holding that position since it's founding in 1991.  He is a 1984 graduate of Louisiana State University with a Ph.D. in Economics (Minor in Geology).  During his studies he was a senior research associate on the Center for Energy Studies at LSU and following graduation he taught there as an Assistant Professor of Geology.  From 1985 to1991, he held various positions with ARCO Oil and Gas in Texas and with Atlantic Richfield Co. in Los Angeles.  John has authored many publications including his latest, Russian Oil Supply, published by Oxford University Press. He speaks Russian fluently and has traveled and worked in Russia