Abstract:
Oil price forecasts are regularly featured on the front page of the newspaper and on various news organizations ’ web pages. These forecasts will likely differ in their view of oil prices over time, but they do have one thing in common – they will be found to be wrong. Tom Walker’s presentation will cover a survey of the current oil price forecasts, along with an in-house forecast of long-term oil price trends.
Barry Evans will discuss the uncertainty regarding rising demand for oil and gas and the ability of supplies to meet projected demand. Oil and gas currently provide the bulk of the world’s energy supply. Recently, oil productive capacity has narrowly exceeded demand resulting in a significant increase in oil prices. Almost all oil analysts agree to the ultimate peaking and decline in oil production, but timing is the question. It is generally conceded that new energy systems will be necessary. These will be composed primarily of oil and gas and other substitutes in increasing quantities as production declines. The biggest problem is the lack of verifiable knowledge regarding 75% of the world’s oil reserves located in the Middle East. Consequently, supply–demand forecasts by EIA-DOE, IEA, OECD etc. are without foundation. Without valid forecasts the peak oil rate could be eminent or already be here. Since supplemental energy sources are still in the developmental stages, economic “meltdowns” and “resource wars” could become a reality.
Biography:
For the last 4 years Barry Evans has been President of Evans, Frey & Walker, Consulting Petroleum Engineers. Prior to this he had his own consulting firm, B. L. Evans & Associates. Prior to consulting he was E.V. P. and Manager of Operations for Century Oil Corp, Vice President- Security Pacific bank, and with Chevron he was a Division Reservoir Engineer and the Bakersfield District Engineer. He has lectured at USC, UCLA and Stanford, He holds Bachelor and Master’s degrees in Petroleum Engineering from USC. He is a member of SPE, SPEE and is a senior member of the American Society of Appraisers.
Tom Walker is a consulting petroleum engineer with Evans & Walker in Fountain Valley, California. He received a B.S. in Petroleum Engineering from Texas A&M University, and joined Mobil in 1986. He worked as a field petroleum engineer, process engineer (in a polyethylene plant), facilities engineer and health, safety and environmental engineer in various Texas and California locations with Mobil and then Aera until 1999. His primary focus with Evans & Walker is on oil and gas valuation work, with a few international projects and some expert witness work thrown in for good measure.
Richard Finken, Forum Chairperson: 562-570-3961 or by email richard_finken@longbeach.gov
